the original "angry white math"
by mbowen 6/95

Statements in italics belong to the individual who argues Pat Buchanan's case.

Pat Buchanan presented the following statistics; judge for yourself:

guess what, you caught me in a studious mood. oops, you'll regret it.

pat buchanan appeals to white males who can't do math. he provides slanted information that bonehead white males can't see through. where are these legendary white male thinking abilities when you need them?

let's inject some perspective.

#1. there are 31 million african americans
#2. the total prison population is just under 1 million.

secondly, this is purely racial information; buchanan gives with no consideration even given for the 'family values' he espouses. we all know that given the subject of affirmative action he will take geography, education, family income and structure into consideration when comparing black and white - just to prove that race makes *no* difference. but angry white males are not sophisticated enough to see through that. so let this intelligent black male instruct you as regards the juvenile errors of your 'thinking'.

thirdly we have no information as to whether these are arrests, plea bargains or trial convictions or what percent are overturned. being rediculously generous and saying that these are uncontested trial convictions, we move forward saying 'of all criminal convictions...

  1. Blacks commit 8 times more assaults than do Whites.
  2. Blacks commit 9 times more rapes than Whites.
  3. Blacks commit 14 times more murders.
  4. Blacks commit 19 times more armed robberies.

let's try this math. if blacks are 46% of 1 million that makes 460,000. on the surface without doing any calculation there are obviously not enough blacks in prison. so either these are not convictions, or america's police are incapable of arresting black criminals. so these are arrest statistics, which means blacks are arrested by a far margin greater than whites are convicted. are any of you angry white males getting lost in this logic?

i am researching this area, but preliminary stats tell me that poor whites much are more well integrated into middle class neighborhoods than are poor blacks. which means essentially that you are not comparing black with white neighborhoods but largely poor with largely middle class neighborhoods and substituting race. this is proven for maryland, and more studies are under way.

the statistics which exemplify this are as follows:






Hood 1 - Mixed race, mostly middle class

Total %





















Hood 2 - Mostly black, mostly poor

Total %





















Hood 3 - Mostly white, mostly working & middle class

Tota; %





















Total City

Total %





















this is a very important model because i beleive it more accurately represents how americans actually live. i will refer to this model from now on. in this example, blacks are overrepresented (by 3.5 points) in the total population but the important numbers to view are the following:


my overall point in this is that racial segregation in housing is the single largest contribution to social problems. that's tangential here but keep it in mind. (c.f. Massey & Denton)

if there is *any* correlation between race, income, geography and crime such a model as the above should be taken into consideration. i will provide average crime rates below. when i say compare them to your areas, i mean for you to create a model such as that above by zip code or police precinct where you live and work. otherwise you cannot make a more accurate decision about race and crime than buchanan's bogus political lies.

if you accept buchanan's lies about race and crime and are white, would you be an enemy of the black panthers? a political rhetorical question. angry white males often say it is black racism that makes them an enemy, but listen to what they believe! ----

these are not official fbi statistics on hate crime. it cannot be proven in any way that these crimes were or were not racially motivated. it's like saying there were 500,000 hit and run accidents between american and japanese cars in which the driver of the japanese car was at fault. you cannot simply say that the toyota drivers looked for a ford to hit. for the real statistics on real hate crime, see below.

ahh yes the old ed koch figures. dumb statistics never die in angry white minds. the (angry white = stupid) punchline was 'therefore 6% of the population is responsible for 46% of the crime' see below for intelligent black clarity.

black males in prison therefore make up about 460M people or .46/31 of the black population = 1.48% of all african americans by the above figures. but those people *are already in prison* and pose no threat to society.

of those on the outside who are *arrested* for violent crime {murder,forcible rape, aggravated assault, robbery} the 1991 fbi figures are 245,437 for blacks. which =~ .245/30.5 = .80%

put these statistics together.

  1. most black violent criminals are already in prison.
  2. those on the outside who are arrested for violent crime are <1% of all african americans
  3. 6% is an incredibly stupid figure simply designed for political scare effect.

now let's do a bit more thinking shall we? if that quarter million arrests are 45% of the total arrests, that means there are about 550,000 arrests annually. being very generous and assuming cops make arrests only 80% of the time for such crimes we'll say that there are 650,000 violent crimes annually.

ther are a couple assumptions which i will say negate each other. each arrest is a different individual, and each individual is one crime.

so now we come to the question of the chances of being a victim of a violent crime. assuming that there is this criminal element which will inevitably commit violent crime, lets look. on a population of 250 Million there are 650,000 violent crimes annually. therefore anyone's chance is .65/250 every year or roughly .26% = 1/385. that assumes, of course that crime is evenly spread, but that's the average chance. racially split, your average chance of a black perpetrator is .45 of that or 1/854. to make sense of this figure check the back of your lottery ticket. in georgia 1/854 is roughly my chance of hitting the $20,000jackpot of by picking 4 out of 5 numbers (1-35) with three ticket purchases.

all you would have to do to get a more accurate figure would be look up the violent crime arrest rate in your areas and calculate out how it rates against the .65/250. if you want to look at the racial figure you would have to know the percentage of those crimes *for your areas* by assailant's racial identity.

which brings me to a question. if you are going to be murdered, raped, robbed or brutally assaulted. do you have a racial preference for your assailant? is a black robber worse than a white one? or do the angry white males just think so? now let's do some guessing and put this racial stuff in perpective. what percentage of violent acts are committed against people known to the assailant? i understand the figure is about 40% but i could be wrong. not by a factor of two i'd bet.

secondly, according to 1992 fbi hate crime statistics (which covers a broader array of crimes than our mighty four - they are {murder, forceable rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, arson, simple assault, intimidation and vandalism}:

65% of assailants were white 29% of assailants were black <3% were multiracial or other

of those victims *targeted because of race*: 57% of victims were black 30% of victims were white

these are new fbi statistics, published for the first time in 1992. they will become more relaible over time. but they are the most accurate source of statistics on crimes *which are racially motivated*.

so whatever is said about the criminality of perpetrators by race it has little logical bearing on who will be a victim by race except for those explicitly specified by the fbi's hate crime stats.

therefore 1.08MM what's your point?

i dispute that figure but either these people are or they are not going to commit the 650,000 violent crimes we discussed. it doesn't change the overall chances. it only indicates the number of people 'in the system'. in fact, considering that overrepresentation of blacks who 'are down with ppp' and the actual number of crimes committed there is a case to be made for their civil liberties being infringed.

remember we said that the chance of being a victim of violent crime with a black assailant is 1/854. assuming that blacks aged 20-29 are 15% of the total black population or 4.65 Million. 25% of that is 1.16 Million or about 1/27 of all african americans. so the chance of you being treated like a criminal if you are black is about 31 times greater that if you actually perpetrated a violent crime. hmmm. this is admittedly fast and loose because we don't know about the nature of offenses in the prison/probation/parole group, nor about the nature of their convictions, most of which are probably plea-bargained. still, it is highly unlikely that the actual number of blacks in the ppp group represent an significant threat to public safety according to the assumptions we have.

well that's an angry white male statistic. obviously the black male rapists are worse than the white male rapists and if blacks rape whites then whites should rape back. but i'll leave it to the feminists to trot out the date rape proportions. of course there is spousal abuse and sexual assault, sodomy and forceable rape in varying degrees. i suspect that white male overall sexual assault on white females dwarfs that of black male against white female, but black male convictions for the more serious forceable rape is high.


so lets wrap this up shall we. the average chance of being victimized in a violent crime by a black assailant is 1/854 per year. this is mitigated (or aggravated as the case may be) by my estimated 40% correlation between knowledge of the assailant.

racial antagonism as proximate cause in crime shows whites to be the aggressor in a greater proportion than they are in normal criminality (65% vs <55%). i suspect anti-semitic content is large in that too.

pat buchanan is playing an old hand, which i am surprised that law and order citizens would fall for, especially if they are in any communications with their local police who should gladly turn over these kinds of statistics. unless of course the police are politicized.

it only makes sense to track the racial identity of perpetrators and victims in racially motivated crimes, and for the purposes of investigating racial inequity in civil rights and due process of citizens charged with crimes. if angry white males weren't so despicably lazy they could do this math for themselves and see how shallow buchanan's argument is.

of course buchanan (and ed koch's) argument also serves the purposes of political antagonism along the lines of 'cultures of poverty' arguments. they both try to bait the overwhelming majority of african americans who have nothing to do with criminality into defending crooks along racial lines which makes black people look anti-social apologists under the rubric of 'self-responsibilty'. of course white people never have to apologize for the timothy mcveighs of the world. but the black middle-class is considered to be politically responsible for black criminals (all 245,437 of them, especially willie horton). nice try buchanan, but you are only fooling your angry white male friends. too bad for american democracy that these clods get all the airplay...